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International Conference
Organized by the Turpanjian Institute of Social Sciences (American University of Armenia, Yerevan)
May 29-30, 2026
The contemporary reconfiguration of global power dynamics has placed the Eurasian Heartland—that vast expanse stretching from the Caspian Sea to Central Asia and beyond—at the center of renewed great power competition. More than a century after Halford Mackinder articulated his seminal theory of the geographical pivot of history, the strategic imperatives he identified have acquired fresh urgency. The region's abundant energy resources, critical transit corridors, and position at the nexus of major civilizational spheres have attracted intensifying attention from established and rising powers alike. China's Belt and Road Initiative, Russia's efforts to maintain its sphere of influence, and Western attempts to promote alternative connectivity and governance frameworks have converged to create a complex geopolitical landscape that recalls, yet fundamentally differs from, the imperial rivalries of the nineteenth century.
This renewed competition unfolds against a backdrop of profound structural changes in the international system. The relative decline of unipolar American hegemony, the assertiveness of regional powers, and the erosion of the post-Cold War institutional order have created new opportunities and vulnerabilities for the states of the Heartland. Unlike the original Great Game, contemporary rivalry is characterized not merely by territorial control but by competition over infrastructure development, digital connectivity, energy supply chains, and normative influence. The geoeconomic dimension has become inseparable from traditional geopolitical calculations, as economic statecraft, sanctions regimes, and development financing serve as instruments of strategic competition alongside conventional military and diplomatic tools.
The challenges confronting the Heartland region in the coming decades are both urgent and multifaceted. Climate change threatens to exacerbate water scarcity and agricultural vulnerability in an already fragile ecological zone, potentially triggering resource conflicts and population displacement. The imperatives of economic diversification clash with the political economy of resource dependence, while efforts at regional integration face obstacles rooted in historical mistrust, divergent political systems, and competing external partnerships. Questions of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the balance between great power engagement and strategic autonomy remain unresolved for many Central Asian states. Moreover, the intersection of traditional security concerns with transnational challenges, including terrorism, organized crime, and technological disruption, demands new frameworks for cooperation even as geopolitical competition intensifies.
The South Caucasus—comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia—occupies a critical position in the broader Heartland Great Game dynamics, serving as a vital geographic and strategic bridge between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. This region represents the western gateway to the Eurasian Heartland and has historically functioned as a contested borderland between empires, from the Persian-Ottoman-Russian rivalries to contemporary great power competition.
The Heartland, the South Caucasus, and the Middle Corridor
Today, the South Caucasus forms a crucial corridor connecting the Caspian Basin's energy resources to European and global markets, bypassing Russian territory. It is a key node in global energy geopolitics, critical to European energy security, diversification away from Russian supplies, and the geoeconomics of hydrocarbon transit routes that are central to contemporary Heartland competition.
The region sits at the convergence of several competing power centers: Russia seeks to maintain influence through security arrangements (such as its military presence in Armenia), Türkiye projects power eastward as part of its Pan-Turkic ambitions and growing role in Azerbaijan, Iran maintains interests along its northern border, and Western powers pursue engagement through NATO partnerships and EU association agreements. China's Belt and Road Initiative has also begun to extend into the region, adding another layer to this competitive landscape.
The Middle Corridor—also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR)—has emerged as a pivotal element in the contemporary reconfiguration of Eurasian connectivity and a focal point of geoeconomic competition in the Heartland. This multimodal transport route connects China to Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye, deliberately bypassing both Russian and Iranian territory. The corridor's strategic significance has intensified dramatically following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which disrupted traditional northern transit routes and accelerated efforts to develop alternative connectivity infrastructure. For China, the Middle Corridor represents a critical diversification of its Belt and Road Initiative logistics, reducing dependence on routes vulnerable to Russian geopolitical turbulence. For Central Asian states, particularly Kazakhstan, it offers a pathway to reduce infrastructural dependence on Russia and access new markets. For the European Union and the United States, the corridor has become a priority as part of efforts to strengthen economic ties with Central Asia while diminishing Russian leverage over transcontinental trade flows—making it a quintessential instrument of contemporary geoeconomic statecraft.
The South Caucasus—particularly Georgia and Azerbaijan, and perhaps Armenia in the near future—functions as the indispensable link in the Middle Corridor, transforming the region from a peripheral zone into a central artery of Eurasian commerce. The Middle Corridor exemplifies how contemporary competition in the Heartland is fought not primarily through military occupation but through the construction of trade routes, the financing of infrastructure, and the establishment of connectivity networks that create dependencies, generate economic opportunities, and ultimately reshape the geopolitical orientation of nations along their path.
This conference brings together scholars, policymakers, and regional experts to examine these intersecting dynamics and to explore pathways toward sustainable development, regional stability, and equitable engagement in an era of heightened great power rivalry. By analyzing historical precedents, contemporary policy dilemmas, and emerging trends, we aim to contribute to a more nuanced understanding of the forces shaping the Heartland and the choices confronting its peoples and governments in navigating an increasingly contested geopolitical environment.
(AI-assisted, based on my specific prompts and interests).